We have just experienced the election cycle of 2016 and now that this year's cycle is over, the nation now reflects. This years election was filled with many surprises, ups and downs and sometimes just plain disgust. The result of the election was definitely a surprise.
It surprised the media, pundits, definitely the pollsters, the opponent’s campaign as well as even the victor’s campaign. All the statistical data pointing towards a landslide for Hilary Clinton to be the next President seemed to be in order. As Tuesday’s results continued to pour in, the sudden shock and realization among the media and the nation trying to cope with the reality that America has just elected an animated candidate to say the least.
As we will have a new President over the next 4 years, we are coping with the data from the results of the Tuesday’s election to understand what drove the electorate to vote for Mr. Trump. Anger and disappointment have been cited for the reasons to go into a different direction from a typical Washington establishment type of candidate.
It is obvious that Donald Trump has become the vehicle to drive that anger towards Washington and to try to flip the switch in to a better more productive Congress. The underlying issue with the election of 2016 is not just the economy growing at a lackluster rate, but it is Congress. It has always been Congress. Congress has failed to work for the people and the President never forget has really only two powers: To declare war and to appoint Supreme Court justices. The beauty of the checks-and-balances system the US employs lies with the fact that not one branch of government gains too much power. However, when the main body (the legislative) fails to work on legislation that would help improve the lives of their citizens, but would rather take an outrageous amount of recesses (aka mini extended vacations) then this idea is self-defeating.
Congress has the lowest approval ratings in US history and a growing and deep mistrust with the American people. The nation believes that the government is not working for them but rather against them. Having studied the market returns and economic data over the last 40 years as economics and an investment professional – studies from academic journals such as the Economist have shown that the economy performs relatively the same under a Democratic and/or Republican President. It is all perception. The anger displayed by the election of Donald Trump presents a new trend - something that we will see going forward in my opinion:
We will not see two-term Presidents any more, at least not for a very long time.
The reason for my belief in this is not only due to the anger of the middle-aged white working class, but rather the millennial vote. Democratic and Republican registration are at historically low levels according to a January 2016 Gallup poll, while Independent registration are at historic highs. Clearly, the nation was dealt a very bad hand this election cycle and a growing thirst for a viable 3rd party is at play. As the millennial generation continues to grow, this will be a driving force to see over the next few Presidential elections. Over the last decade especially, we have seen the American people try different combinations of Congress make-up. Republican President, Democratic Senate/Republican House or having a Democratic President with a Republican controlled Congress and we are still unsatisfied.
We are going to continue to change it up as an electorate going forward to try and ensure that even the most ‘tenured’ Congressman and women have their jobs at danger, but to also hold the President accountable should they fail to serve the people. Donald Trump will be the first of this trend. If Hilary Clinton won the election, she too would have been a 1-term President. The people are angry and want change and these 2 parties at the moment hold all the power for sure. I would argue within the next 10 years, a viable 3rd party would take shape to capitalize on the dissatisfaction with the Democrats and Republicans who have had control over the last 150 years.
President Obama will be the last 2-term President for a very long time–because as the election of Donald Trump in 2016 has taught us, our vote is the strongest tool that we have as citizens, and the next opportunity we have to vote, we will continue to vote for change until our government starts to understand that it is time to work for the people.