At the end of last week, House Speaker John Boehner announced that he would be resigning from his seat in Congress later this month. This is a seismic shift in Republican leadership, but far from just an isolated incident. Boehner’s resignation marks yet another event where the Republican establishment is losing its grip on the party.
To adequately explain the establishment’s current predicament, it’s necessary to look at the historical record. After the 1964 presidential election, where Lyndon Johnson crushed Barry Goldwater with a score of 486 electoral points to a meager 52, conservatism could no longer win on the merits. A new strategy needed to be developed to keep the Republican Party alive.
The strategy was two-pronged. In the short term, Republicans employed the Southern strategy, a racist form of mobilizing voters by, using coded language, playing into white society's fear about blacks and other minorities. This strategy was a large factor that enabled Richard Nixon to win the presidency just four short years after Goldwater’s disaster. Former Republican National Committee Chairman, Michael Steele, apologized for the Republicans use of the Southern strategy.
For the long term, Republicans mobilized evangelicals, a group that was politically inactive at the time and one that would be loyal for years to come. Initially the strategy was ineffective, for Jimmy Carter became the first evangelical president in 1976. But in 1980, Ronald Reagan would come to the rescue and successfully combine the two strategies in a decisive victory.
Although the both presidents used the Southern strategy and mobilized evangelicals, they were just means to get elected. They would often use decisive language to further divide by race, like the demonization of people on welfare, and actually used policy in the form of the War on Drugs, which Nixon started and Reagan expanded.
But the main point of this political maneuvering was to provide government goodies for the establishment. Today the establishment is mainly composed of big business and the two major party officials. The Republican establishment enlisted these two tactics, which they would only pay lip service to, but then circle money amongst each other. Businessmen would get tax breaks and looser regulations, while politicians received legal bribes in the form of campaign contributions. Both parties are guilty of entrenching themselves in this circle, although the Democrats did not employ the Southern strategy during this period, nor did they seek out evangelicals.
Ronald Reagan’s presidency is the best example of this phenomenon. Most remember the Reagan Administration as a time of booming economic growth. It’s true, the economy in the '80’s was strong. But it was not anything like the conservative projection we hear today of tax cuts and balanced budgets. The yearly budget deficit went from $900 billion when he took office to $2.6 trillion when he left. There were also five different occasions when taxes were raised during his time in office.
Unfortunately, today’s nativists and evangelicals are beginning to get tired of just having lip service and they’ve decided to make a move. Constituents are backing outsider candidates with three of the top Republicans for the 2016 nomination being outsiders. Of course Carly Fiorina, a former businesswoman, may certainly play ball, but Trump is a xenophobic wild card who the establishment knows they can’t control. Ben Carson has also said that he “will, in no way, get into bed with special interest groups.”
Radicals have also moved into the Senate, an institution that used to be insulated from the whims of public opinion. Ted Cruz’s rise has been because of the Tea Party, a voting bloc that embodies a misfired establishment ploy, for the group was originally planned and funded by Charles and David Koch. Sen. Cruz argued against the raising of the debt ceiling, a move that used to be routine because failure to do so means that the United States will default on its debt since we already have the things we haven’t paid for. He was also at the forefront of the government shutdown in 2013 because he wanted to repeal Obamacare, and is arguing to shutdown the government again over Planned Parenthood.
Speaker Boehner’s resignation was just the latest move. The next speaker will be more conservative, more divisive, and more destructive. Next in line of Republican leadership is Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who made media rounds this week to lay the groundwork for his ensuing bid for the speakership. He stated that he will “put a strategy to fight and win,” for example “we put together a Benghazi special committee… (and Hillary Clinton’s) numbers are dropping.” Is your strategy really a winning one when you admit to political theater that doesn’t advance the welfare of the American people? These Republicans have no interest in governing, or giving tax cuts to businessmen like the Republicans of old, they just want to fight the good fight.
The establishment has no one to blame but themselves, for they sowed this culture and are now reaping it. Establishment candidates like Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and Marco Rubio can look at the frontrunners from behind, and Koch brothers candidate Scott Walker can watch from the sidelines since he recently dropped out. The establishment certainly will strike back since the Koch brothers have said that they will spend almost $900 million this election cycle. In fact, the entire campaign will be the most expensive in history with some estimates being as much as $5 billion. At this point, money is all the Republican establishment has going for it and they better hope it weathers the storm, since their nativists and evangelical crutches no longer work for them.