In years past, we could make a case for each division winner for why they could win the Commissioner’s Trophy. In 2015, it’s a little more complicated as each division winner has definitive strengths and weaknesses.

Let’s tackle the big gorilla in the room first, the Kansas City Royals.

KC’s favorite boys are at the top of the AL Central with a commanding double-digit lead over their nearest competitions in second and third places. With many of their players returning from the magical team of 2014, they’ve set out to prove their success last October wasn’t a fluke.

The only teams that could step on KC’s parade might be the division leaders of the AL West and AL East. Thus far in the 2015 regular season, the Royals suffer from losing records vs. Houston, New York, and Toronto. If KC finishes the season on a high note with a winning month of September, they’ll still be the front runner to make it back to the World Series, but the postseason could be a bumpier road than they expected.

The Houston Astros have to hold the superlative as “MLB’s Dark Horse of 2015.” Who knew this team was even going to compete this soon in their massive rebuild?! A.J. Hinch is a shoe-in for AL Manager of the Year and has his bunch playing at the highest level since the glory years of 2004-2006. Houston’s pitching staff leads the AL with a 3.32 ERA and holds opposing batters to an AL-leading .236 batting average.

The only vulnerable element of Houston’s Cinderella story could be the team that trailing them in the AL West, the Texas Rangers. The Astros have struggled against Texas throughout the season, allowing more runs scored than they scored themselves. If Texas actually completes their comeback from early-season woes to take the wild card, Houston… we might have a problem.

The most entertaining team since the All-Star break might be everyone’s favorite team come October, also known as the Toronto Blue Jays. Just like the Pirates in 2013, the Blue Jays are trying to break their 20-year streak of missing the playoffs, the longest in the majors. The offense is a juggernaut and the pitching has greatly improved, securing the fifth-best ERA in the AL.

Honestly, there’s not much that could step in Toronto’s way… except those damn Yankees. The psychological intimidation factor of the Bronx Bombers breathing down their necks could force the division race to last until the final game of the regular season. There’s still anyone’s guess who will win the AL East.

How ‘bout those St. Louis Cardinals? Yes, they’re the “model franchise” and yes, they’re a shoe-in for the best record in the NL. They have secured the MLB’s best record for over five months and show no signs of fatigue. Although the Cards have serious competition in their division, they have posted a 32-18 record vs. the NL Central as of the start of September.

One might think the Cards could pass the time and book their ticket to the big dance in late October before the postseason even begins. But guess who’s standing in their way? You guessed it, the San Francisco Giants. If not for the Giants, the Cards might have played in the World Series for five straight seasons! St. Louis better prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

This next one has got to be the strangest one of them all. The New York Mets are NL East division leaders at the start of September with absolutely no competition in their division. New York’s pitching staff is the heart and soul of their franchise and keeps rolling since the start of April.

Congrats Mets fans! You’re practically in the postseason for the first team since 2006. But just look at the teams you’ll have to face at the start of the NLDS. There’s a long road to get to the World Series and the only possible way for the Mets to make it there is the best postseason pitching performance since the Atlanta Braves in the 1990s. The level of competition in the NL East vs. the postseason field is too broad for a Mets’ postseason adventure.

Last but not least, we’ve got the golden boys of Southern California… those L.A. Dodgers. The tough job for the Blue Crew isn’t winning their division, they’ve accomplished that feat before. In the postseason, the NLDS has never been their friend. Whether it’s the Cardinals, the Phillies, or the Giants, the Dodgers can’t find their way through the muck of early-October baseball.

Could this year be different? Probably not. They still have to hold off the Giants from winning the NL West crown, which could eliminate them from the postseason all together. If they got past San Francisco, they’d still have to face Pittsburgh or St. Louis with pitching staffs far superior than their own. Greinke’s spine has to be almost broken from carrying the Dodgers all season long. Maybe next year fellas.